Customer calculator

What new customers are worth over 10 years

Artist A - Does not have a range of pricing and lineup. Only sells originals.
Artist B - Has a lineup and a range of pricing.

Your numbers

Artist A

Artist A

Originals only

How many people buy from you for the first time each year.

What your first-time buyers spend on average per order.

The share of your past buyers who order again each year.

Artist B

Artist B

Lineup

How many people buy from you for the first time each year.

What your first-time buyers spend on average per order.

The share of your past buyers who order again each year.

What these numbers say

  • After year 1, Artist B has 100 people to email. Artist A has 10.
  • In year 10, people who already bought are 64.1% of Artist B's revenue.
  • Over 10 years, Artist B brings in $601,069. Artist A brings in $302,530.

The math

Your base new customers arrive each year. Past buyers can bring in more new buyers, and some repeat orders can move to a higher price.

  1. New buyers = base new customers + word-of-mouth rate × all past buyers
  2. New revenue = new buyers × AOV
  3. Repeat revenue = come-back rate × past buyers × [(1 − move-up rate) × AOV + move-up rate × max(AOV, upgrade value)]
  4. Total = new revenue + repeat revenue
  5. People you can email at year end = past buyers + new buyers

max(AOV, upgrade value) uses whichever value is higher. An upgrade value below AOV cannot reduce repeat revenue.

Customers you can email

This line is everyone who has ever bought from you.

05001k1.5k2k12345678910
Artist A · Originals onlyArtist B · Lineup

Revenue each year

Each bar is that year's money: first-time buyers plus people who come back.

$0$25k$50k$75k$100k15k18k22k25k28k32k35k39k42k46k25k32k39k47k55k63k71k80k89k99k12345678910
Artist A · Originals onlyArtist B · Lineup

All the money, added up

This line is every year's revenue, added from year 1 through year 10.

$0$250k$500k$750k$1m12345678910
Artist A · Originals onlyArtist B · Lineup

Where they are in year 10

Artist A after 10 years: worn out, holding one painting and a coffee

Artist A · Originals only

With growth

$302,530

Without growth $285,000

104.6 people to email

Artist B after 10 years: beaming, surrounded by prints, shirts and mugs

Artist B · Lineup

With growth

$601,069

Without growth $475,000

1,200.6 people to email

With growth, Artist B is $298,539 ahead after 10 years. Without growth leaves out word of mouth and moving up.

Total revenue by year

Each row is one year. Total revenue is new sales plus sales from people who already bought.

YearArtist A customersArtist A repeat revenueArtist A total revenueArtist B customersArtist B repeat revenueArtist B total revenue
110$0$15,000100$0$25,000
220.1$3,150$18,300204$6,000$32,000
330.3$6,331.50$21,633312.2$12,240$39,280
440.6$9,544.82$24,999.33424.6$18,729.60$46,851.20
551$12,790.26$28,399.32541.6$25,478.78$54,725.25
661.5$16,068.17$31,833.32663.3$32,497.94$62,914.26
772.1$19,378.85$35,301.65789.8$39,797.85$71,430.83
882.9$22,722.64$38,804.67921.4$47,389.77$80,288.06
993.7$26,099.86$42,342.711,058.3$55,285.36$89,499.58
10104.6$29,510.86$45,916.141,200.6$63,496.77$99,079.57

To keep things simple, this calculator assumes you never raise your prices. In real life, prices almost always go up year over year.